Take note that only blue chests can drop a Peculiar Box.
Has this actually been confirmed? I’m sure some earlier posts suggest that drops can come from any of the bags, it just appears that lair, dungeons and scenario chests have a higher chance (if the overall theme of the thread is to go by).
Kinda hard to prove a negative.
I still haven’t got any box, only about a dozen missions left before I’ve finished all missions once. I did try a bit of E1-2 soloing but the distillates didn’t feel rewarding for the effort involved. My basic dps build is good for about 9/10 of E1 bosses which isn’t quite good enough to just clear everything (ur draug for one hits too hard)
@Kle I’m not sure who you’re replying to, but if it’s Szalord then he means that it only drops from the blue chests in the dungeons/lairs not the normal white ones. The box can still drop from mission item bags, but the drop rate seems to be pretty low.
@Onevia The distillates are definitely not worth wasting dungeon keys/MoF on. It’s not an efficient way to grind gear, it’s just for the small chance at getting a box from the blue chests. That’s why I only open the blue ones. You need to have some sort of self healing for certain fights like Ur Draug. Also, the drop rate is still really low on dungeon chests so you could 100+ dungeons and still not see a box. Has someone pointed out how stupid the RNG system is for this yet?
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The bags don’t have anything to do with chests.
For the chests, every single person that i know (including 2 boxes for myself) who ever got a Peculiar Box from a chest got it from a blue one. That’s a total of more than 10 boxes so far. I think, to the contrary to what Onevia says, it’s easy to prove a negative: assume that boxes only drop from blue chests until a screenshot confirms otherwise.
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Technically, you’re not proving it, you’re just making an assumption and testing that.
Just like you can assume that magic does not exist in real life, so you take this assumption as a proof for the time being.
What would be the odds (if boxes could also drop from regular chests) that from all the chests that we’ve opened so far (hundreds), and after 10+ boxes dropped, all of them specifically came from blue chests?
There’s no proof that magic doesn’t exist, and many people believe it does, (I’ll let you draw your own conclusions about what this implies about people). It’s an assumption based on a statistical model with a massive amount of data. We don’t have the data to make a safe assumption about bag drops yet, given that the data set just isn’t big enough.
Given that I’ve had a single box from thousands of green bags, I’d be willing to accept the potential for normal chests to drop them at a similarly miniscule drop rate. Just because blue chests have a better % chance doesn’t mean that the chance from normals is zero.
Stats is an integral part of science, and statistical facts have always been historically considered as proof, whether you agree with it or not. It’s not because you can’t prove something by A+B that it means you have no proof, it’s rather until you can debunk a theory or show that the statistics are skewed that the proof holds.
I disagree. I’m not even sure how you’re even expecting to get more data at this point with how many people that are left playing the game AND collecting + reporting their drops.
It’s been said that chests have a bigger chance to drop boxes than mission green bags, and that regular dungeons runners regularly get boxes (seen several people with 5+ bags already including myself, and even saw one person with 9 boxes so far from chests). But that was only from blue chests.
For me, the amount of chests opened without a SINGLE box coming from non-blue chests out of 10+ boxes dropped just in my own cabal is more than enough to make a statement and bring it as a knowledge contribution for the community, even with a tiny (close to non-existant at this point) risk of being proven wrong. I’d 100% go for it instead of eternally being hesitant and not bring anything to the table other than “statistics is not A+B proof! heresy! not enough data! we need millions of boxes dropped before conclusions!”.
PS: adding an extra peculiar box from a cabal member 2 days ago from a blue regional chest. He also got an Aurélie agent dossier from the same chest. 
The only thing that you’re saying which I disagree with is that it constitutes a proven fact. A result based on a small data set has limited value as you can’t claim a high degree of statistical significance.
There is a hypothesis that normal dungeon chests don’t drop the box, which is currently supported by the available evidence. The total number of dungeon chests being opened is not massive though. Based on the drop rate from green bags, it is possible that the drop rate from normal dungeon chests is also very low. It’s got nothing to do with the blue chest drop rate - we’ve already seen that they have a different drop rate.
I think that it’s probable that normal chests either do not have boxes or that the drop rate is so low that it’s not something which would be relevant for people trying to farm the box. Until there’s a much larger data set or word from the devs confirming it though, it’s not a proven fact, merely a very strong hypothesis.
The main confounding factor to me is people who only open blue chests (which is anyone who’s farming E1s for agents).
Blue chests are about 1 in 7.5 in dungeons, so if there were 30 dropped by people who are opening every green chest and paying attention to loot, that makes it at least 200 times less likely. I would hope that means it’s impossible but if the green bag drops are on the order of 1 in 1000s it could be similarly unlikely (although if it’s under 1 in 100 for blue chests, 1 in 20000 for green seems a bit low).
I would only take Word of God as confirmation either way of any drop location that players haven’t specifically screenshotted. To me confirmed is a stronger term than just “don’t look for it there” which I’d be happy to say about green bags. But I’d probably also say “don’t look for Peculiar boxes anywhere, just play the part of the game you enjoy”
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Ok so my speculation was in fact proven wrong as yesterday me and a group mate dropped a box from the same dungeon blue chest.
BTW it was from a last boss chest too, so the rumor about boxes dropping only from other blue chests is wrong as well.
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This isn’t really new information. Everyone has there own drop chance/rates from the chests they open. And we already know peculiar boxes are almost 100% likely to only appear from blue chests regardless of which boss including regional and lair bosses.
Did you just contradict yourself? You stated that this last dungeon chest was blue.
In game rumors said that it was from blue chests but not from last boss ones, don’t know why
Maybe my bad English failed me, but I meant that the chest was blue and that it was a last boss chest.
@paololov Like I said, I was pretty sure it could happen but just didn’t happen that often. Still good to have confirmation. Also, good to confirm that it can drop from the final boss chest. I’ve also heard the rumor that it only dropped from other boss’s chests, but I didn’t really think that was the case.
By the way, how many peculiar boxes does that make for you? I’ve only seen two so far, so I need to know whether we’re even or if I’m allowed to hate you now.
@Drenneth Are you speculating that drivers have a direct correlation to the drop rate of peculiar boxes? That’s possibly the most wild theory so far, but feel free to run some tests and let us know your findings. Or are you just replying to some post I missed about crashing? That would be much less interesting.
this was my second Nytha, we can be friends for a while 
@paololov Well, that didn’t last long. I got my third last night, but I’ve also opened close to 100 blue dungeon chests since my last one. It’s not like I was overly lucky. Also, I got a third depleted energy cell so it amounted to nothing in the end.
Which brings me to my next point. Why are the museum items on an RNG system as well? Why couldn’t they just make it so you could choose which item you want? One of the defenses of the RNG system for the peculiar box is that at least the museum item is a guaranteed drop. Well, that’s not the case when there’s two items and one of them is rarer RNG drop. So, not only do some people have to wait months for a chance at the tank commander fight, they may have to repeat the process of waiting months 5+ times to get both the items.
Now, are the drop rates 50/50 and people are just getting unlucky or is the tank commander blade a designed rarer drop? Anecdotal evidence would suggest the latter, but that doesn’t make much sense as the blade is a blue drop while the cell is purple. The blade is also the one you need first for the museum. For those who have beaten the tank commander multiple times, what have your drops been?
So that it creates a surplus that can be traded. If it was one then the other then many people would then stop, having met their personal need. By RNGing the drop, there’s a much greater potential for the items to then end up on the AH.
Tbh, with the number of people successfully getting kills (and thus drops) not being terribly high, people would probably keep grinding them for sale even if it did just alternate.