I’ve processed the first batch of agents and their chances to run Urgent missions with the focus on how to obtain Epic Agent Gear Bags. Results are part of Shalrys’ agent sheet now.
Just a quick summary of what you may want to target if you wish to start your purple bag hunt:
Minimalistic set Nassir + Hayden
These two can run all the Bag Urgent missions with just purple gear. Not the best chances tho.
Complete set Amir + Nassir + Montgomery + Oleg + (Petru)
These will run all the missions with the best possible chances. Petru is almost equal on his mission with Nassir. Petru will have better outstanding chance but longer time (10h instead of 8h). Probably not worth as the outstanding reward is just signet bag. But “the best of the best” he is (even if only by 0-1%).
Optimized set Amir + Nassir + Oleg
The best of both worlds. Very good set that will run all the Bag Urgent missions with almost maximized chances.
Disclaimer: not all agents are accounted. Namely Che and Mehmet will most likely have some nice chances too and it may change the composition of sets. But the other high stat agents are all in.
Blue gear will add around 4%. So you need base chance 29%. Hayden can’t run any. Nassir might (never know without trying). But purple gear should be minimum here. It’s available on market at worst and compared to price of agents it should be starter gear he. Additional 8% is very welcomed. You can sell any duplicates back.
Tried to find the approximate formula behind agent base chance but all I proved is that the chance in sheet is not based solely on their stat, at least not the same way as stat gear bonus. (In other word if you use an agent with gear to match the other agent stats their chances will differ. This is true even for agents with traits that don’t involve any affinity, outstanting or stat bonus.)
So with either some hidden bonus, or messy work setting the agents which is more probable as it seems these chances are not computed but set and the guy copypasting them into game made a lot of mistakes - same as several missions have switched second and third stat requirement. Might be either visual bug or formula bug - doesn’t matter - but what you see is not what you get. So only “try it out” works now. And hope that at least the chance shown is true and not bugged as well.