TL;DR summary: key value ~$0.15 v key cost $1.25. Keys would need to be priced at about 10~15 Aurum to be able to slow sell the results for more than direct conversion.
– Longer “WOT” for those that like stories about gambling.
Here are some estimates on the value of a cache-key – the kind you get from the cash shop or via daily patron. I opened 102 Winter Caches.
Net Result: 2 epic weapons, no mounts, no pets. Rough resale value ~300k MoF net after about 2 weeks, with perhaps another 50~100k MoF still unsold.
- 1 Key = 3.4k ~ 3.9k MoF
- 1 Key = 17.9 ~ 20.6 Aurum (@ 189 MoF/Aurum)
- 1 Key = $0.15 ~ 0.17 (@ 120 Aurum/)
How much do Keys cost? There are two sources: daily Patron and direct cash shop:
- 1 Key = 150 Aurum or $1.25 via Cash Shop
- 1 Key = $0.43 via Patron Daily
The lesson: if you want MoF, don’t buy Keys. Buy MoF directly with Aurum. Assuming I had directly converted Aurum -> MoF, that ~350k MoF after two weeks would have been ~2.9M MoF almost instantly.
NB: this does not mean keys are not worthwhile, especially as part of the Patron deal, which has so many other nice bonuses that I’d count the Patron key as essentially free. Also, if you value distillates, buying keys might be nice for you; 102 key results for distillates:
- 37 blue weapon
- 60 blue talisman
- 55 purple glyph
- 43 purple signet
Personally, I feel cash-shop distillates have zero or even negative value. Ultimately, we’re buying fun here in a game. Buying more fun is good. Buying things that don’t equate to more fun is bad. If I’m having fun already, reducing the time until I cap progress is bad (reduces potential fun). The only way I see the distillates as a good buy is if they nudge my char up into a quantum with more fun than where he is currently.
So, why did I buy keys considering how bad they are? Well, didn’t know they were that bad and other-game experiences were all universally good. So, I figured for a $100 pittance, I’d either get what I wanted (Frost-Bound Hammer) or MORE than $2.9M in MoF via slow sales. That’s how other games worked. Cash gamble always nets more than direct convert, just slower. VERY not so in this game. Even if the two epics I got were high-value instead of junk, that would have at best been maybe 50% of the value of direct Aurum->MoF conversion.
Looks like I won’t be buying keys ever again … well … unless they drop to 10au/key.