Thanks to another thread, I got curious about how the RNG works out for the Library of Esoteric Artifacts, so I spawned in 1,000 fragments of power and the results are below. (This is all on PC, singleplayer, no mods - but, in theory, should be the same for all platforms.). Results were gathered in batches of 200 (so I could empty inventory in between) - blue columns are the running totals, green is the final results. You’ll see that variance results in some pretty wide swings, but as an increasing sample size is used, the numbers trend together (with a few outliers). For a 1 in 30 chance, a sample size of 1,000 is still far too small to completely smooth it out - and ‘Petrified Egg’ in the final set proves that even with 200 fragments it’s possible to still miss on a recipe. All in all, I’d say it looks like the rng is functioning as intended (which is slightly depressing, lol).
Some of us have Word blocked on our gateways for work. Would you upload an image file like a JPG, please? Thanks for the hard work. That’s a lot of scrolls.
Great work, Dan. This is very valuable to me. Two small points: the total tests by totaling the green column comes to 1,004. The only tabulation problem I can come up with is Venom-Infused Daggers, in the third column there’s a small addition error. This then leaves 3 unaccounted-for tests.
My employees say that too. Therefore I remain locked in my nerdery until I’m briefly allowed access to a keyboard. TBH, the right column looked a little heavy, so I manually added it.
This is Standard Deviation, and considering the test set, very acceptable. Again, great work!
@Barnes , Tbh too, I would love to work with a person that understands that He is the face of the company, He is responsible for everything, because at the bottom line, He is the only one that’s really loosing from employees errors. That is responsibility after all, but
… Thank God here we have fun… Boss
Well, there’s a reason I’m a words guy not a maths guy,
I can see what you mean with the Venom-Infused Daggers - 7+8 does not equal 16… I’ve gone back through my original hand written notes in case there was a transcription error, but it looks like my mistake was in the count itself, sorry about that. If I had to guess at the most likely spot for me to have gone wrong, it would be Gravedigger in the third set - I remember stumbling over that one - though I suspect it’s more likely that would account for one of the extra three rather than all of them.
that’s the bit that impresses me I have a fair grasp of estimation and the like, but a string of numbers like that would have to be off by a couple of hundred before my brain’s likely to notice the discrepancy
It was just something I was curious about, and figured I’d share, I’m glad it might be of use
While the system is random, the odds shown was at the lowest was 2.3% and at the highest was 4.8% (based on 1000), where the average chance is 3.3% based on the number of recipes. So the chances seemed to be within reason.
Personally, I know I do some testing for people here and there, I am not sure I would have done this test. Kudos for the work you did for us.
I’ve never quite figured out the ‘head drop’ system, lol - although that does sound way off what it should be. As @stelagel says, I think I usually use a cleaver on Elks/Elk Kings - whereas I find hatchet works better for some others (eg boars iirc), and I get heads from shoebills even if I se a skinning knife (seems I can’t not get their heads, lol). But going that long without success sounds like something’s gone very wonky. I’ll try to kill a few this afternoon and see if I can figure anything out
@Sir.Henry.Vale Thank you for providing the actual odds - that’s useful information and would have taken me far longer than gathering the actual data, lol. (What’s worse is, it’s only by looking at the numbers you provided that I realised how that even works ) To be honest the ‘grunt work’ doesn’t worry me - but I’ve got to figure out a better system next time to more safely avoid errors - previous similar tests have mostly been about pet taming, so I could keep dropping the results into chests to double check later - didn’t have that option in the Archives, so thought I could ‘get away with it’ (and proved I couldn’t quite ).
@stelagel was correct, i used the cleaver and got a trophy head immediately. Sometimes I think i have played this game for so long I have forgotten more than I learn.
So small map, yet so big game, I have the same issues, especially with the names, I never remember them no matter if I read them 1.000 times. Same here, count me in on this one too @JJDancer
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I have a fair grasp of estimation and the like, but a string of numbers like that would have to be off by a couple of hundred before my brain’s likely to notice the discrepancy 
