I believe Lance that was shown on devstream is just the basic one.
This how it looks with Armor pen upgrade.
I’m charging thrall with 120 armor for roughly 400 damage. It’s not that bad.
Edit
This is 50 strength character on dev_horse that have locked 20 stats. But it’s possible to get horse with higher strength than 20, 40-50 is probably achievable. So theoretically with current Test build numbers One shot Lance is possible.