They both are 100% right.
The purge is based off everyone who plays/played on that server who’s structures have not decayed.
Just because only 40 people can be on at a time, doesn’t mean there are servers that don’t have 100 people playing on it at different times. Those people all have structures. Those people are all subject to the same RNG if their meter is full enough. Doesn’t matter if it’s full or above the line for getting purged, all thrown into the same lottery machine.
It’s why offline purges happen and even happen to people bases who haven’t been on in days. And considering we just ended the 400 hour decay timer thing, it could have been people who weren’t on in 14 days finally getting their turn at an offline purge that they likely will never know even happened.
The purge itself isn’t broken. It works, the problem is the more people on your server, in total not currently on, the less likely you are to get it.