I think Siptah Elder Vaults should give a recipe every time you finish them.

There is a 25% chance at the moment - which makes it frustrating if you go in for recipes. Also, the recipe is random, so collecting all of the 39 recipes would take 156 runs to get all of them even if you only get every recipe once. The average amount of runs to collect all factoring in the possibility of duplicates is 24,336*, which is unreasonably high.

If I had more faith, I actually would suggest, that you add a shelf at the end of every vault that allows every player to get one new recipe of the vault loot table, that you donâ€™t already have (similar to the changes in the Siptah Tower), every time you finish it. Remember, this would still take 39 runs to collect all, which is a lot, and takes way longer than turning in all fragments of power.

This is the second time (recently) that Iâ€™ve read someone quoting a 25% chance. I was under the impression it is far less than that. Can you please cite your source?

Admittedly Iâ€™m not the sharpest tool, but your math confuses me. Are you implying that with a 25% chance, 4 runs will net you a recipe? That is not how percentages work. Donâ€™t forget that the 2nd, 3rd and 4th run will also have a mere 25% chance.

I donâ€™t understand this number either but I wonâ€™t ask you to explain it. Fact is, I agree that there needs to be less layers of RNG on Siptah. A guaranteed recipe scroll at the end of every Vault (even with possible duplicates) would be a huge step in the right direction.

This is a very common argument and if you look at the single runs it is true. But statistically numbers even out and if you take a high number, like one million runs, for example, roughly 25% should have given a recipe - meaning a quarter, meaning every fourth.

Sorry, the number is probably a Chat-GPT error, which I used to calculate the chances and which (after some experimenting) apparently sucks at it. Using the â€śCoupon Collecter Formulaâ€ť you should have to find an average of 166 recipes to get a full set. If we assume only every fourth chest is a recipe, you have to open an average of 664 chests to get all.

While the number is significantly lower than the one I stated in the first posting, I still think it is unreasonably high. Because if you want Grand Master Armorsmith and Grand Master Weaponsmith in Exiled Lands, you go Warmaker just one single time and get both.

I recall when siptah came out, my first several experiences with vaults never yielded any recipes. In fact, I still find them to be pretty rare. So, yes, Iâ€™ve experienced the same issues. Recipes have been more reliably dropped from monsters, via collecting fragments.

Itâ€™s worth noting that the Wiki page itself does not quote any sources. Based on my own anecdotal experiences as a pretty regular Vault-runner, that percentage is very, very optimistic. Maybe it has once been accurate, and found from the DevKit or something, but I suspect itâ€™s no longer true.

The very concept of a probability of 0.25 or 25% just means a calculate value, that on average, with a very large number of attempts, there will be one find per 4 attempts.

Agreed! I just assumed it would be a data-mined value since the editor is available to download for everybody and the writer of the article notes: â€ś* Note: There are two additional recipe entries in the list that point to missing items.
If these roll, it will not give any recipe.â€ť This implies he had some insight into it.
But this may very well be outdated information or be influenced by another system, the author did not take into account.

I agree that elder Vaults should give a recipe every time or at least a much higher chance
The last time I played on an official Siptah server I had my base very close to demon spider vault, I have lost count of how many times I went through that vault, but it was a massive amounts and I cannot remember ever getting a recipe there, so either that 25% chance is a lie or I was just one of the most unlucky players on Siptah

Yes, that was my point. It would take a large sample size to arrive at 1 recipe for every 4 runs, and he later clarified:

However, his original statement (and what I quoted him saying) was that it would take â€ś156 runs,â€ť which is not a large sample size at all, in fact it leaves no room for probability and suggests that you will get a recipe every 4 runs, without fail.

Of course, 156 is an average value. The one we can expect. Not something that will actually happen in practice - in any case.
In addition, it is not a fact that there is such a high probability of dropping a recipe in vaults.
I usually took parts of recipes from the mi-go dragonfly in the ruins northwest of the Tower. There, I estimated the probability of getting a recipe at 15-20%. And in vaults, IMHO, less.

Also, probabilities get very high/low very quickly.

Before writing this topic I wrote another one (deleted now) because I thought the patch did delete all recipes from the loot table since I didnâ€™t get one 12 runs in a row.

With a chance of 25% as stated in the wiki, there is only a probability of 1,95% for this to happen.
So in this case the probability got very low with a relatively small amount of runs.

And yes, it is all statistics and averages and not something one could rely on.

Actually, that is why I donâ€™t like â€śchancesâ€ť and rng in games at all - I prefer farming toward a reliable target.