Siptah wild surge thrall t3 probability spawn rate

Hi well, tried 5 wild surge, and saw 3 t3.

i know probability can be tricky, may be i was very lucky

but just to suggest, that if yes it is needed to have wild surge to drop some t2/t3, it should stay a very low probability. it was needed for solo player or little clan to have an other way than a surge to get t2/tt3, but t2/t3 should be a rare drop. i mean for me you should do 40 wild surge before seeing a t3.

Why would anyone bother to do wild surges if it the RNG is lower then that, just do the way shrines instead less work in the end for sure. The RNG is low enough on Siptah. It takes you forever to get a decent thrall.

because on a pvp server if you do a surge, you will see a lot of people coming and kill you, as surge done by players are indicated on the map, with a big visual effect in sky to indicate you are summoning it

result is ; any solo player or little clan will be killed and lost control of their surge, it’s why it was needed to have an other way to get at least t2 or t3. so this was a very good decision to do it, but if wild surge give t3 so easily, it will make surge by player no more needed. a pvp clan in 1 or 2 days can get t3 with wild surge, and so enough for having a war economy. and after they will raid others to get t4. so only matter of good balance to find for spawn rate of t2/t3 in wild surge.

they also make rng better for surge but i have not tested yet on testlive

The spawn rate for T2/T3 in wild surges is ridiculous right now. It’s made worse by the fact that T1 (0-199 Swirling Chaos) surges at leyshrines have worse crafter spawn rates than wild surges. Last two of those I did on Testlive had 2-3 T1s and 1 T3 - and the Relic Hunter one also had 2-4 non-capturable Relic Hunter Elite thralls per wave and a 3-skull Treasure Finder at the end.

Personally, I wouldn’t object to eliminating T3s from Wild Surges and making players spend 50 Hardened Steel to summon a basic surge to get them. But if that were to be done, the spawn rates for T1 summoned surges will need reviewed and made consistent - it looks like they were missed in the most recent surge update that increased T2/T3 crafter rates.

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Not everyone is on a pvp server but really is not what you all want to have to fight for every thing, I was pretty sure that is the reason of PVP for the thrill of the fight, for the thrill of being the best on server, so if they show your place on map that just gives you better chance of a big pvp battle. Is that not the object of PVP to battle for every thing well they have helped you now everyone knows what you are doing and will come running to kill you … More PVP yay for you all.

10 players coming against 1 player or 2 players is not really pvp… come test on a pvp server you will undestand quickly what i explained first. balance of the game should serve both pvp and pve server. finding thrall too easily will not serve the interest of gameplay. what was giving a different gameplay (for pvp server i talk) was the grint to find thralls.

for having the best balance, yup i agree with you, but in case where same parameter on pvp & pve, well no other solution than to find best balance possible between the two.

That’s the problem with randomness, in a nutshell. You might see a 1%-probability outcome happen 5 times in a row. You might see 95%-probability outcome fail 20 times in a row. The probability is supposed to affect the distribution of large samples.

With that in mind, there are two points of view when discussing RNG-based gameplay in Conan Exiles. One focuses on the probabilities and statistics and long-term, large-sample effects. People arguing from this point of view will say “Sure, you might get lucky or unlucky, but the important thing is that the probability holds for all players in the aggregate.”

The other focuses on the effects the small-sample outcomes have on each player. People arguing this point of view will say “What does it matter if the macroeconomy of the game is well balanced if so many players are unhappy and frustrated by random outcomes.”

The situation becomes ironic when you see the same people argue from one point of view when they agree with the current state of RNG and then from another when that state changes, or is about to change.

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hum i did more test, there is a t2 or t3 in 80% of wild surge, i would suggest to check weight table (i dont know how to do it).

but for sure their drop rate seem to be pretty high, too high.

and so the patch was released, did 2 wild surge at second blackmisth t3, knowing that now blacksmith t3 has recipe of old purge blacksmith,so now even easier in siptah to find thrall than in conan… i think their 5% prob announced is more 50% in reality. no point to summon surge other than t4 actually. easier and less time consuming to go for wild surge.

but anyways update totally broke, game freezing randomly constanlly, unplayable.

I’ve hit ~10 wild surges (most of which crashed, which is why I’ve only hit ~10) since the patch, and all but one had a T3 crafter. There really is no need to do any summoned surges except T4. It would be entirely reasonable to limit wild surges to T2 crafters if doing non-T4 surges was an intended feature.

I think that’s deliberate. It would appear that Funcom wants the Wild Surges to be an intermediate step before moving on to the T4-giving Greater Surges. Thus, seeking a T4 thrall IS the reason for doing a Greater Surge. That and getting armor pieces from the Veteran thralls that spawn, too (for the Delving Bench).

I went as well through 5 wild surges and saw only t1. apart from dancer 3. You was probably very lucky.
And i think all the tiny tribes or solo players should get a chance as well to get thralls.
Where it will be still very hard to fight for them if all other player come n attack.

well since this morning, wild surge do not givet3 each time, I don’t think i was lucky (did too many wild surge before today to think it was a rnd thing, i think something has been changed :slight_smile:

This entirely misses the point, though. There are 4 types of summoned surges (5 if you count Calamity Surges). With the current state of affairs, players will only ever do 1 of the 4 (and also won’t ever accidentally get Calamity Surges). The T2 and T3 surge factions (that were developed, and that got distinctive thralls and NPCs) will never be seen, as there’s no reason to summon them, except perhaps when you’ve so thoroughly exhausted the game that you might consider doing it for cosmetic purposes.

T1/T2/T3 summoned surges are all easier than T4 summoned surges - as well as far less costly - but before the patch there was minimal reason to do them. After the patch, there’s NO reason to do them - unless you’re harvesting essences to build a shrine, and in that case you’ll only do a T1 summoned surge (which incidentally is currently less rewarding than a wild surge - yes, it has 7 waves and you’ll still get fewer crafters for a much greater risk).

There should be a reason to do T1/T2/T3 surges, and restricting WS crafters to T2 would help, or at a minimum giving them reasonably low rates so it’s rare to see a single T3. When you have WS that drop a T2 and two T3s (the 12th one I did yesterday did exactly that - so it averaged out the 11th which had been the first I saw with NO T2+), there’s no reason to do T1 (which only takes 50 HS to summon), let alone T2 (50 HS, 200 ??? of Swirling Chaos) or T3 (50 HS, 400 SC). T1 summoned surges should probably get a balance pass - they seem to have been mostly ignored - but T2 and T3 need something to make them have a purpose. Right now they have most of the downsides of T4s, and their lower cost is canceled out by their inferior risk-reward balance.

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Thanks for explaining further. After reading your post, I agree completely. There’s no reason to do the lesser Surges at the wayshrines.

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FWIW, last night I tried the live 2.1 update and I managed to get to 3 wild surges before my game froze. Not one of them had any T2 or T3 crafters.

I suspect that what we’re seeing here is either:

  • bugged probabilities in TestLive that have been adjusted before going live, or
  • the usual variance where some people will have crappy luck and some will have extremely good luck

I do agree that there should be a good motivation for summoning T2 and T3 surges, but I’m also not sure I agree that there’s no reason to summon them after this change.

In a wild surge, you get 3 waves: 1, 2 and 5 NPCs. In a summoned surge, I think it’s 7 waves (I don’t remember right now) and it’s something like 12-15 NPCs in each wave.

Sure, you can eventually get everything you need from wild surges, but it might just be simpler and easier to summon surges.

As an anecdote, before the change, I was working on gathering souls to upgrade my religious shrines to T3. From each wild surge, I would get up to 6 souls. Usually fewer, because the game is buggy and the corpses often just disappear (and relogging doesn’t solve that). So, that’s 18 wild surges, in best case, that I have to chase all across the map. And then I said, “screw that, I’ll just spend 50 eldarium to summon a no-chaos surge”. One summoned surge gives me between 40 and 50 souls, and it’s super easy to get them.

So maybe we should give it some time and see the effects of the change?

I did 3 wild surges last night. 1 had only T1s, 1 had T1s and a T2, and the third had T1s, a T2, and a T3. The lower rates were consistent with what others on my server were describing at that time. The rate does seem lower than before hotfixes.

The number of NPCs in a wave for a summoned surge is more like 6-8, not 12-15. I believe 7 is correct, though. However, it’s common at this point for 1/3-1/2 of those waves to be nothing but combat thralls - to include possibly only untamable combat thralls. You’ll also usually get 2 of the crafter slots dedicated to priests - I tested in admin last night for 8 summoned surges (2x T1-T4) and every one had 2 priests.

I’d add that saying there should be a reason to summon T2 & T3 misses that there should also be a reason to summon T1. Right now, the only reason is harvesting essences. Despite having 7 waves, you’ll get as many non-priest crafters from a wild surge. Yes, really. 2 T1s and a T2 or T3 is the norm. For an entire 7-wave summoned surge. Worse still, they haven’t balanced the factions - West uses Relic Hunter Elites that are untamable and tougher than the other directions’ (tamable) combat thralls.

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yup something has happened (been changed) 24h after release, now prob annouced are working, t2 around 10/20% t3 around 5%.

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I did only 2 last night and it was still just T1s for me. I got some crappy luck, it seems :smiley:

I think this might vary depending on the surge tier and choice of altar. I was trying to maximize the number of humans I would get to harvest souls for my shrines, and the best results I got were for 0 chaos, altar of the south. The only non-humans that would spawn were baby animals, the rest were NPCs from the cannibals faction.

Bear in mind, though, that I did those summoned surges before the 2.1 update. I haven’t done any since, because they changed the altar mats from decaying eldarium to hardened steel, so I have to stock up first.

Yeah, my first summoned surge ever was 0 chaos, center altar. Way too many hyenas and untamable NPCs.